Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: Best Odds and Preview for September 30, 2021

By BestOdds Analyst | September 29, 2021, 10:46 pm

Bobby Dalbec has 99 hits this season, and will try to collect his 100th when his Boston Red Sox (89-69) take on the Baltimore Orioles (51-107) on Thursday at 7:05 PM ET. The Red Sox are favored (-230) over the Orioles (+191).

Nick Pivetta starts for Boston, and Alexander Wells is Baltimore’s choice to start.

Best Odds for Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles

Welcome to the BestOdds betting breakdown where we use data from our industry leading partner, Sportradar, to identify performance trends in order to analyze teams’ chances to win the upcoming game.

Today, we are looking at the MLB matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles.

Red Sox Insights

Betting Trends

  • The Red Sox have been favorites in 103 games this season and have come away with the win 61 times (59.2%) in those contests.
  • Boston and their opponents have hit the over in 72 of their 158 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Red Sox have scored the fourth-most runs in the league this season with 811.
  • In nine games as the favorite over the last 10 matchups, Boston has a record of 6-3.
  • In their last 10 games with an over/under, the Red Sox and their opponents have combined to clear the total four times.

Probable Starting Pitcher Stats

  • Pivetta (9-7 with a 4.52 ERA and 166 strikeouts in 149 1/3 innings pitched) tries for his 10th victory when he gets the start for the Red Sox, his 30th of the season.
  • In his last appearance on Saturday, the right-hander tossed 5 1/3 innings against the Yankees, giving up one earned run while surrendering three hits.
  • Over Pivetta’s 29 starts, his team is 16-13.
  • Pivetta has started 29 contests with a total set by sportsbooks this season. The teams have combined to hit the over in 12 of them.

Key Players

José Iglesias 18 .358 .414 .528 1 7 19
Kyle Schwarber 109 .265 .365 .559 32 71 103
Travis Shaw 21 .243 .333 .568 3 10 9
Rafael Devers 152 .278 .346 .531 35 110 159
Xander Bogaerts 140 .296 .363 .499 23 79 153
BestOdds rating 9.4
Risk Free Bet Up To $5,000

Orioles Insights

Betting Trends

  • The Orioles have been the underdog on the moneyline 144 total times this season. They’ve gone 46-98 in those games.
  • Baltimore has played in 158 games with set over/under, and has combined with opponents to go over the total 77 times (77-75-6).
  • The Orioles have the No. 26 offense in MLB play scoring 4.1 runs per game (644 total runs).
  • Baltimore was the moneyline underdog in seven of its last 10 games, and finished 3-4 in those matchups.
  • Over their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Orioles and their opponents combined to hit the over three times.

Probable Starting Pitcher Stats

  • Wells (1-3 with a 7.61 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Orioles, his eighth of the season.
  • The left-hander’s most recent time out came on Friday against the Rangers, when he threw five innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing five hits.
  • Wells’ team has a 1-6 record in his starts this season.
  • Wells has had seven starts with a total this season, and the teams combined to go over the total in four of those games.

Key Players

Nick Ciuffo 1 .333 .333 .667 0 0 1
Cedric Mullins 153 .297 .363 .531 30 59 174
Ryan Mountcastle 140 .254 .308 .487 32 86 132
Austin Hays 126 .255 .305 .466 22 70 121
Trey Mancini 143 .253 .320 .433 21 70 137

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