Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Best Odds and Preview for September 29, 2021

By BestOdds Analyst | September 28, 2021, 10:47 pm

Aaron Nola will try to collect his 10th victory of the season when the Philadelphia Phillies (81-76) visit the Atlanta Braves (84-72) at Truist Park on Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET. The Phillies are underdogs in the matchup (+120) against the Braves (-139).

Max Fried gets the starting nod for Atlanta, and Nola is Philadelphia’s choice to start.

Best Odds for Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

Welcome to the BestOdds betting breakdown where we use data from our industry leading partner, Sportradar, to identify performance trends in order to analyze teams’ chances to win the upcoming game.

Today, we are looking at the MLB matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies.

Braves Insights

Betting Trends

  • The Braves have come away with 61 wins in the 107 contests they have been listed as the favorites in this season.
  • Atlanta’s games have gone over the total in 71 of their 155 opportunities.
  • The Braves have scored the ninth-most runs in the league this season with 764.
  • Atlanta has played as the favorite in seven of its past 10 games and has gone 6-1 in those contests.
  • In their last 10 matchups with a total posted by sportsbooks, the Braves and their opponents are 5-5 when it comes to hitting the over.

Probable Starting Pitcher Stats

  • Fried gets the start for the Braves, his 28th of the season. He is 13-7 with a 3.12 ERA and 152 strikeouts in 158 2/3 innings pitched.
  • His most recent time out came on Saturday against the Padres, when the left-hander went nine scoreless innings while giving up three hits.
  • Fried’s team has a 17-10 record in his starts this season.
  • Fried’s starts hit the over on the run total 11 times in 27 games with a set total this season.

Key Players

Eddie Rosario 28 .269 .333 .577 6 13 21
Austin Riley 155 .301 .364 .526 32 100 172
Freddie Freeman 155 .300 .380 .509 31 82 176
Jorge Soler 52 .263 .348 .500 12 31 52
Adam Duvall 52 .234 .291 .537 16 43 44
BestOdds rating 9.4
Risk Free Bet Up To $5,000

Phillies Insights

Betting Trends

  • The Phillies have won 33 of the 67 games they were the moneyline underdog this season (49.3%).
  • Philadelphia has played in 157 games with set over/under, and has combined with opponents to go over the total 76 times (76-76-5).
  • The Phillies are the 11th-highest scoring team in baseball averaging 4.6 runs per game (719 total).
  • Philadelphia has been named the moneyline underdog by oddsmakers only two times over the last 10 games, and lost both matchups.
  • In their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Phillies and their opponents combined to go over the run total three times.

Probable Starting Pitcher Stats

  • The Phillies are sending Nola (9-8) to make his 32nd start of the season as he aims for his 10th win. He is 9-8 with a 4.64 ERA and 219 strikeouts in 174 2/3 innings pitched.
  • The righty last appeared on Thursday against the Pirates, when he tossed six innings, allowing six earned runs while giving up six hits.
  • Nola’s team is 15-16 in his 31 starts.
  • Nola has started 31 contests with a total set by sportsbooks this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in 18 of them.

Key Players

Bryce Harper 136 .309 .417 .615 34 82 145
Matt Vierling 29 .339 .375 .475 1 4 20
Jean Segura 129 .294 .350 .443 14 57 149
J.T. Realmuto 128 .268 .343 .443 16 72 124
Brad Miller 136 .227 .315 .461 20 48 73

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