Love Analytics In Sports Betting
As a sports betting content creator, I love analytics because the numbers don’t lie.
If I research the ATS record of the University of Delaware as an away underdog in games where they are playing outside of their home state, and I learn that traditionally the Blue Hens fail to cover a lot of those games, that’s not my opinion, it is a fact.
I love to share interesting facts and nuggets we stumble across in the BestOdds data science lab.
However, if I tell you that by following just one simple tip, I can make you a better bettor than what you are right now, that is opinion-based writing.
I am treading into some murky waters as a content creator with opinion-based writing.
Who am I, as a sports bettor, to be throwing around unsolicited advice?
Where is my transparent betting record proving to everyone that I am indeed the betting voice you should blindly follow?
Well, murky waters aside, I am here to boldly say that you can be better at sports betting with just one simple tip to follow, and I’m going to dive into that one tip for you right now.
To Excel, You Need To Excel
Ok, so the excel headline pun above isn’t my strongest work, but the point I am trying to make is that you need to track your bets.
There are several reasons why tracking your bets is valuable.
The most obvious is that we can quickly identify our strengths and weaknesses as a bettor.
We will use the 2021 NHL regular season as an example.
Let’s say we placed 200 total hockey bets last year. Those 200 bets are an assortment of moneyline, puck line, over/under, player props, etc.
At the end of the NHL season, a quick glance at our overall bankroll will tell us whether we are up or down from our original total when the season first started.
But knowing if we are up or down money isn’t enough information to actually help us get better.
Micro-Manage Your Betting History
Within those 200 NHL bets, how did we perform?
What is our record and profitability when we break it down by individual type of bet?
Our table above is an interesting breakdown of someone’s 2021 NHL personal betting history.
That someone may or may not be me.
Obviously, there is a lot to take away from the information above.
This random yet handsome bettor did OK with their moneyline bets, and they were pretty much break-even with their puck line and totals betting.
Regarding their prop betting success, 2021 wasn’t their year.
The data collected is helpful but should also be considered a small sample size.
If a bettor was diligent enough to track their NHL betting results for two or three consecutive years, now we have a lot of valuable data about ourselves.
We can use that personal data to make better decisions in the future.
Zoom In On The Micro Data
Breaking down our personal data by bet type is helpful.
We can identify a specific skill or lack of skills with the different types of NHL bets being offered.
Once you have compiled enough data, you can zoom in and get even more detailed analytics.
Betting The Maple Leafs:
In the case of our mysterious, handsome hockey bettor, not only are they still loyal to the Queen and choosing to use the UK decimal odds format, but they are also a pretty serious Toronto Maple Leaf’s fan.
Tracking our entire history allows us to quickly sort our NHL bets to include only games involving the Maple Leafs.
As a longtime Leaf fan, this bettor can track whether they have an edge against sportsbooks based on their knowledge and passion for all things Blue and White.
Gathering this information may help shape your betting future by determining where you are achieving your greatest success.
Of course, if it points out the good, it will also point out the bad.
Sometimes seeing the actual results can be hard on the ego. Ultimately we are always better off knowing.
At the very least, if we track our NHL betting history for a couple of seasons and see that we are down 20% on our prop bets, we can seek some educational tools and wisdom to help us get better.
Spreadsheet Tracking Objections:
I realize many people have probably gone down the tracking road previously or didn’t start because of the workload involved.
For all those who say, “Malcolm, I don’t have the time” or “Malcolm, this is a lot of work,” I have one response:
I totally get it.
Preach Brother Malcolm, Preach
Tracking your betting history isn’t for everyone, and I can speak from firsthand experience, it can be time-consuming, depending on the volume of bets placed.
Software is available claiming to make this easier than hand bombing the information into a spreadsheet, but I don’t have firsthand experience with any of the available options.
If you do have experience with bet tracking software, I would love to hear what you used and how well it worked.
And don’t let me mix the message on you.
This is not a promise that you will automatically become a profitable bettor if you start tracking your results.
But it is definitely my opinion that tracking your results will make you a better bettor overall.
Even when John Tavares To Score First Goal prop bets are your weakness, they never cash, despite his $11 million salary accounting for 13% of the team’s overall salary cap.
About the author
Placed his first sports wager shortly after high school, and has been involved in this whirlwind of the industry since then. Fan of most of the maj...[Read full bio]